Keir Starmer's Backers Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Block Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback

Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a coordinated effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an impending byelection.

Major Hurdles in the Selection Procedure

A number of figures on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are keen to avoid any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine is said to have swung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted outrage in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially stand for the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any potential bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

A number of insiders also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The trade unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to mount a significant campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.

The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.