A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. They authors two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has got something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
