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Against the backdrop of the considerable disarray surrounding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “control” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, there is no doubt – these actions create a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States possesses a dark record of interference, invasion and occupation in Latin America, but this past Saturday morning saw its first major military attack on South American land. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Trump proclaimed.

The decision to unilaterally attack another state and abduct its leader – just a short time after he publicly sought an off-ramp – has still wider repercussions. We all have reason to be worried.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has remarked that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and rejected rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other factions of the decapitated regime are considerably more radical.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who came to office pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is converting it into a renegade nation.

He is convinced that the US’s might allows it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: observe the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He asserts that Venezuelan oil means this latest episode “will be financially free”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came lacking any form of UN approval or the consent of the US Congress; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to shatter them.

Put aside the signal this transmits to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will likely encourage further adventurism.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

Few believe the excuse that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is propelled by the allure of petroleum resources as well as a desire to project strength, the worldview of key officials, and the appetite for triumphalism as his support at home declines.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode emphasizes the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could still pressure him to focus on domestic issues once more – but rising medical costs, financial discontent and other domestic scandals make foreign conflicts more appealing.

Barely 12 months into his presidential term. World leaders may live to repent if they fail to speak up today, with the question of which nation is next looming.